Is an economic recovery around the corner? I think the trend looks pretty
good. Here's a sampling of recent news and observations:

From:
Akira Hirai
Cayenne Consulting, LLC
Business Plans * Financial Models * Company Building

State's economy rebounds in May - The Arizona Business Conditions Index,
based on a survey of corporate purchasing managers, jumped to 53.8 from 50.1
in April. It hasn't been that high since April 2002, when it stood at 54.
http://tinyurl.com/dcxu

Manufacturing Showed Gains Last Month - Manufacturing activity increased in
May, suggesting that the worst may be over for factories that slowed
production during the war in Iraq, an industry report showed yesterday.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 49.4 in
May from 45.4 in April, the biggest monthly gain since December. Order
backlogs grew for the first time since June. http://tinyurl.com/dcxr

Industrial Report Pushes Blue Chips to High for the Year - Blue chips
advanced yesterday, achieving their highest close of the year, after an
encouraging manufacturing report fanned investor hopes for an economic
recovery. http://tinyurl.com/dcxq

Getting smart about state's economic future - We're on our way. Now we must
stick to it. http://tinyurl.com/dcxo

Consumers' confidence rises in May - The Conference Board index tracking
consumer confidence in the economy rose to 83.8 in May from 81 the previous
month, the highest level since November's reading of 84.9. The April index
had soared 19.6 points from March as consumers cheered a quick end to the
war in Iraq. http://tinyurl.com/dcxj

2 cheers for Bush recovery that brings traction - Is it a recovery yet?
http://tinyurl.com/dcxh

Strong earnings fuel hopes, stock gains - Brushing aside a report of
sluggish factory orders, Wall Street extended its rally Wednesday as it
focused instead on hopes for an economic rebound. Upbeat earnings from
companies like Krispy Kreme and Costco fed the optimism.
http://tinyurl.com/dd6j

Greenspan Sees Signs Economy Is Stabilizing, Ready for Rebound - Federal
Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said Tuesday that he sees signs the economy has
"stabilized" and is poised for recovery. http://tinyurl.com/dcxd

Job-Cut Announcements Fell 53% in May From Prior Month - The number of job
cuts announced by U.S. corporations sank 53% to a 30-month low of 68,623 in
May from 146,399 the previous month, according to a Challenger, Gray &
Christmas Inc. survey published Tuesday. The falloff in layoffs could
signal "an end to the job-cutting spree that has plagued American workers
since 2001," but unlikely comes as a result of an improving economy, the
outplacement firm said. http://tinyurl.com/dd24

Earnings beat expectations in Q1 of 2003, sales growth was strong at 9%
overall, the forecast is positive for the second half of 2003, and credit
quality is improving. http://tinyurl.com/dd6d

Arizona's unemployment rate is holding steady, and is better than a year
ago. http://tinyurl.com/dd73 and www.bls.gov/ro9/9430.pdf

There are many smart folks out of work - some of these people are starting
businesses that will create jobs. http://tinyurl.com/dd77

The venture capital environment in the United States looks brighter for
2003, according to a survey of 74 venture capital companies located in 23
states. http://tinyurl.com/dd7v

VC deals fuel turnaround hopes. VCs are sitting on some $70 billion in
uninvested capital. Entrepreneurs have become more reasonable about
valuations. VC funds have solved internal portfolio issues.
http://tinyurl.com/dd8d and http://tinyurl.com/dd8s


Other recent world and local events and observations:
* Gulf War II is behind us
* The U.S. is making nice with France, Germany, Russia, and others
* There seems to be some modest progress in the mid east peace process
* A new infrastructure is in place to protect against domestic terrorism
* The U.S. seems immune from SARS
* A $330 billion tax cut was enacted
* Residential real estate remains red hot
* Interest rates remain at 30+ year lows
* Inflation is nonexistent
* The devaluation of the dollar will attract tourism dollars and will
increase exports
* The Nasdaq is up 24% since mid-March, and is at or around its 52 week high
* Promising new cancer treatments have emerged
* TGen is off and running
* Thousands of unviable companies have been weeded out
* The wave of corporate scandals seems to be pretty much over, meaning that
most of the bad guys are indicted or in jail, and the good guys are back in
charge
* Gas prices continue to fall
* Airfares continue to fall
* With 3 years of belt-tightening, there should be some significant pent-up
demand for capital equipment and services among corporations
* Service providers - accountants, attorneys, software firms, etc. - have
cut prices, making it easier for people to start new companies
* The European Central Bank appears ready to cut rates, which may spur
economic growth in Europe, and therefore demand for imports
* People have finally accepted that the bubble was abnormal - they've licked
their wounds and have resumed their focus on fundamentals
* There appear to be larger numbers of tech job postings on sites like
Monster, as well as on the aztech-work mailing list
* People I talk to are expressing some confidence for the first time in
quite a while

So, what does all of this mean? It means that the light is finally shining
at the end of the tunnel. And it's about time.

Cheers,
Akira

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Akira Hirai
Cayenne Consulting, LLC
Business Plans * Financial Models * Company Building
http://www.caycon.com
akira@caycon.com
480.861.8999
Resources for Entrepreneurs: http://www.caycon.com/resources.php
Web Design that Works: http://www.cayennemedia.com
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